Nervously eyeing the markets

[V]

How to protect yourself from a currency collapse is a complex subject, one that my wife and I have discussed sort of as a running conversation since the U.S. was pushed back into deficit spending by the combination of tax cuts, and the response to 911, both of which occurred in the early days of the last decade.

There must be lessons for us in the history of the great depression, and in situations where currencies have collapsed in other countries, such as the one you reminded us of.

I'm open to suggestions regarding the best way to respond to the threat, without disrupting our personal finances too much in the process. As a stopgap measure we have, at times, owned significant amounts of foreign currencies, but I'm not too sure how truly seaworthy that approach is, should the winds of financial uncertainty rise too high.

Where's Mixz1 when you need him?
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[It's a social commentary that the American people- as a whole- were never asked to sacrifice to help their country pay for the response to 911- neither by paying higher taxes, nor even by buying bonds- to prevent the acquisition of massive debt by the nation to which they had repeatedly pledged their allegiance.]

[V]

On the subject of how to protect against a currency collapse, we have considered owning, and have owned, foreign currencies. This has prevented us suffering loss in times when the dollar has been weakening, over the last eight years, or so. In normal times, owning a currency pair, USD/AUD, for example, takes some of the ups and downs caused by currency fluctuation out of your portfolio, but we try to do better than that by making moves away from currencies which we think are trending downward.

But this may only work in "normal" times. If there was a true dollar collapse, I don't know what the consequences for other currencies would be- probably not good. They might all lose value in a panic situation, and inflation, everywhere, could take off.

We've thought of buying a farm, but we know nothing of farming: I suppose we could rent the farm to someone who does, and have them work it.

We've thought of owning precious metals, not gold particularly but perhaps a rare metal required in industry, then wondered how practical that would prove to be when it comes to financing whatever life style you might retain in a crisis. It would offer protection from runaway inflation, it seems to me, so long as demand for it held up, at least a little.

Anyway, as I said earlier, it's a complex subject, and perhaps that's why most people would rather not think about it.... Those who can manage to do so will be better prepared than those who can't. That there will be a crisis seems unavoidable.
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Aside from asking the American people to step in and save their government, and their currency in the process, by lending, generously, and paying more in taxes, I'm not sure what other response is possible on the part of the government, saddled as it is with debt, which would already be in default if the government were not simply printing money to satisfy redemptions and pay interest, when due, as they're doing now.

But one thing I have thought of is an international auction of U.S. Government assets. This already occurs with lots of U.S. Government property, on a regular basis, and includes many kinds of things, but I'm talking about really valuable things, like land, in prime commercial areas, or near cities, in the path of development. To begin to talk about conducting such an auction might, itself, get the people on board to try to save their government, and their currency, from disaster.

Even this wouldn't get it, though, without the American people agreeing that they can no longer have all of the things they have wanted from their government, whatever their pet thing is, whether it's weapons or medical care. This has, and will continue to be, where the real disconnect is occurring: a people unwilling to accept that their country is not as wealthy as it once was, and that things which seemed "affordable" before, no longer are....

[V]

For anyone interested in having foreign currency accounts in the U.S., the FDIC insured, "Everbank", is an option.

www.everbank.com

[V]

Mixz1 called our attention to Germany's reluctance to be part of a bailout of Greece. They are now signaling that they will not help Greece.

Germany Backtracks on Europe Rescue for Greece - NYTimes.com

If Greece turns to the IMF for a bailout, where will the IMF get the money to help, given that they have traditionally been funded to a large extent by the U.S.?

With the U.S. having exhausted its credit resources- who will step in, so that the IMF can lend to Greece? Is it possible the U.S. will just decide to print more money to fund the IMF, like it is doing with much of its other obligations?

We may start to see a domino effect as other nations, including the U.S., begin to be tested on their credit worthiness, and their cost of borrowing goes up.

[V]

Because I'm from the U.S., and the USD is my functional currency, I tend to worry more about dollar devaluation; but, the Euro seems to be under greater, short term threat of significant loss of value as a result of sovereign debt and the possibility of downgrades in the creditworthiness of its euro zone members. In addition to Greece's debt woes, Portugal has now been downgraded, and the euro has slid in value against the dollar, in response.

Some commentators have observed Germany seems to be weakening in its commitment to the single currency. National pride would surely make them hesitate to pronounce the single currency a failed project, but they might abandon it if the price of maintaining it became too great, as a result of other nation members' profligacy.

Strength in the Asian economies has helped to keep the world economy afloat in this troubled period: should we see China start to slip back in economic activity there would be real cause for concern about what is going to happen globally in the near term.

I've never been a big believer in owning gold, but I could find myself looking at this question, afresh....

[Life_N_Cancun]

You're paying a real premium for gold if you buy today IMHO.. a few years ago when it was $300.. you would have done good.. but this late in the game with gold at $1100.. I can't see it staying that high... of' course I said that at $900 a year ago.... I know people in the gold game..and they don't look at it as long term... LAND is long term.. gold is weekly or monthly depending on the fluctuations.

The "good" thing about the US, as opposed to smaller countries, is if/when $hit hits the fan, the US has enough assets (ie:land/territory/mineral rights/technology) to sell off to satisfy the creditors without too great of an impact to the national infrastructure. I only hope the people in power are not too selfish/full of themselves, to realize its better to give up something than allow the whole economy to crash.

[Jim in Cancun]

Buy Euros!! Exchange rate today is $16.80 pesos per.
The GBP isn't bad either

[Life_N_Cancun]

I bet the Euro meets the dollar then settles...... maybe then I'll buy some...

The whole "one global currency" idea sounds real good in times like these....

PS: Jim, where are you buying at?

[V]

There's several themes going at once on this thread- currency devaluation, the threat posed by sovereign debt, the risk of currency collapse, and the risk of a general economic collapse, among others. On the subject of currencies, I concluded some weeks ago, and mentioned it on this thread, that I thought the USD would strengthen in the near term. Acting on that belief, we closed out our foreign currency holdings.

Seeing the result, but not fully understanding the mechanism, it seems when traders close out positions on a large scale it creates demand for dollars, perhaps because the investments were made in dollars, initially (for example, when I used USD to buy foreign currencies). In any case, it seems when traders get nervous, the dollar strengthens.
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Life, I agree with you about gold, have never considered it a good investment and, as a result, watched from a distance while it increased in value over the last seven or so years when those who generally predict bad times were urging people to buy it, and predicting it would go much higher, as it did!

But, now I'm considering it from a different point of view- as "money" which could be used to pay living expenses (how, exactly, I have no idea) should all other money be rendered worthless. Having perhaps 20% of ones assets in gold could prevent losing everything, I suppose, but I'm very new to thinking about this.

Land, while always worth something, especially if you could live on it in subsistence fashion, growing your own food, etc., cannot be used to pay living expenses when there is no market for it, as there would be in a general collapse, it seems to me.
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It's difficult for me to imagine there being a general collapse, given governments' willingness to prop up national economies; but, if governments ceased cooperating to solve problems, if trade wars broke out, if countries became unwilling to come to the aid of others, it could happen. Considering this, it becomes worrisome to see Germany getting cold feet about participating in a bailout of Greece, and other EU members, and when there is talk of the U.S. applying economic sanctions to China, at a time of global weakness.

[Jim in Cancun]

I buy at a Bank branch in Terramar usually. Yesterday 16.80 m.n. for a Euro was good enough to entice me! Heading to Euroland later this summer.

[V]

You may have bought well, Jim, but the Euro has always punished me for owning it.

[Jim in Cancun]

For the first time in history, the GBP has treated me badly. I am holding some that I bought at 22 pesos pero a couple of years ago! Don' have that many Euros but bought them at 18 2 years ago too.

[Jim in Cancun]

An interesting article entitled:"Play catch-up with Mexico
Often considered NAFTA's weakest link, the emerging market is coming on strong
On Monday, the Mexican Bolsa index, the country's top equity benchmark, hit a new high, only to soar even higher yesterday. The Mexican peso, meanwhile, reached its highest level since early October 2008 yesterday and remains the top-performing currency among emerging markets this year."

The whole article here: Play catch-up with Mexico

[V]

Thanks for reminding us, Jim.

Many currencies suffered greatly against the dollar in 2008. While many of them have recovered a great deal of their lost ground, the peso, it seems, has lagged behind, somewhat, making it a currency with good potential for further gains, in the short term.

Last year, we had a heavy stake in the Mexican peso but became impatient with it when it didn't recover as fast as some of the others did. It could still represent a good way to enjoy a nice gain this year, now that the identification of Mexico with the swine flu, and its impact on tourism, is over.

[Life_N_Cancun]

Originally Posted by Jim in Cancun

The Mexican peso, meanwhile, reached its highest level since early October 2008 yesterday and remains the top-performing currency among emerging markets this year.

Yet the prices at most (greedy) stores for everyday goods are still increasing as if the peso is weakening... my cost of living is up about 10% so far this year on top of the 15-20% increase last year and the 20% the year before when the peso started its decline.

[V]

Chinese GDP rose at a 12% pace in the first quarter of the year, beating expectations, although inflation, at 2.4% year on year in March, remains below market expectations.

The U.S. economy is showing signs of stabilizing, if not growing, and the stock market has responded to that news, but what concerns me, when I step back and look at it, is that the U.S. economy is where it is despite being under tremendous stimulation- the massive tax cuts enacted early in the last decade are still in place, the expenditures involved in conducting operations and maintaining forces in two theaters of war continue, historically low interest rates are where they've been, and the money supply has been rapidly expanded over the last eighteen months (2.5X, as I understand it)- yet the economy remains laggardly.

Can the U.S. economy simply be "tired" after everything that's happened, burdened with a continuing housing debt crisis as it is, and prove to be much like we've seen with Japan's economy, staying more or less where it is for the next decade, or longer, in spite of all efforts to stimulate it?

[V]

The pattern in which, when U.S. markets head up the dollar heads down, which I had not seen until the financial collapse of 2008, remains in place, and will probably do so until full confidence returns to the markets, home prices stop declining, and the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates.

The peso, it seems to me, benefits (in value against the dollar) from this, too, but also has its own strengthening trajectory, based on Mexican economic factors.

So far as I know, Mexico was not victimized by a housing market inflated by that innovation in the financial world known to some as the SIV- which encouraged untold billions to flow into the pool of money available for new home mortgages in the U.S., and led to the collapse.
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Nothing has been done to reform the financial markets in the U.S., to date. Having been bailed out by the U.S. taxpayers, its back to business as usual at the big investment banks. All of the things that led to, and aggravated, the collapse of western economies are still in place in the markets, including OTC derivatives, which Warren Buffet has all but called the economic terrorist weapon of choice, if the wish is to destroy the economy.

Goldman Sachs (didn't we hear their name mentioned, just recently, in an SEC prosecution for fraud? one and the same!) just announced a 3.5 billion USD profit for the quarter.

Whose sheep will end up being fleeced for that tidy sum, do you suppose, along with other billions, before the excesses again lead to a collapse?

[That you were a victim becomes apparent only when things go south- broadly speaking- making it one of those things you wake up to, over coffee, while reading your paper some fine morning.]

[In case you weren't following the news, Goldman Sachs was accused in the SEC complaint of offering for sale, and encouraging people to buy- by representing them to be safe- securities that they themselves believed, and had secretly bet, would collapse, which they did and from which, Goldman Sachs made billions- first by selling the things, then by betting they would fail. Are your sheep feeling the breeze, yet?]
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We, like many others, suffered losses, but not as a direct result of the collapse of the housing market or the sharp downturn in the markets that occurred late 2008- because we'd seen this coming for a long time, like a slow motion train wreck- but, rather, as a result of the general economic collapse and the dislocations it caused, which changed many of the rules we were familiar with, like strong economies producing strong currencies. The unwinding of positions caused the dollar to strengthen (my interpretation of this otherwise counter intuitive result), even as the U.S. economy was collapsing and the Federal Reserve was chopping interest rates (this also helps understand the gains many currencies have experienced in the last year- in some cases, like the AUD, of 50% against the dollar- where rising interest rates in economies that are recovering more quickly than our own, coupled with investors moving out in search of foreign denominated investments, and reestablishing much of the carry trade, have combined to drive other currencies higher).
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For anyone curious to know more about derivatives, these financial instruments traded privately, and completely unregulated which Warren Buffet warns about, read on-

The most common types of derivatives are futures; forwards, which are futures traded outside of a regular exchange; options, which are the right to buy or sell something at a specified date and price; and swaps, contracts involving an exchange of assets or payments.

In recent years, a bewildering variety of derivatives have been developed. One kind that played a central role in the financial crisis are credit default swaps, which are in essence a form of insurance policy, and whose value swings with the fiscal health of the transaction or asset it is written to cover. Swaps and other derivatives were often sold and resold in ways that attenuated the link between a party who created the thing of value being covered, and helped disguise the level of debt financial institutions were taking on. In the later stages of the housing boom, credit default swaps written in reference to mortgage-backed bonds were themselves bundled into financial instruments, known as synthetic CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations. Investors buying CDOs were essentially placing a wager on whether bonds held by someone else would turn a profit or fail.

At the end of 2008, the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland estimated the face value of all derivative contracts across the world to be $680 trillion, up from $106 trillion in 2002 and a relative pittance just two decades ago. Theoretically intended to limit risk and ward off financial problems, the contracts instead have stoked uncertainty and actually spread risk amid doubts about how companies value them.

[V]

Well, Greece's inability to manage it's debt is in the news, again. From the N.Y.Times-

The euro slid in early Asian trading on Friday to $1.3201. That follows a decline on Thursday in Europe to $1.3316, down from $1.3401 on Wednesday. The euro also dropped against the yen.

“The euro is getting clobbered as worries about Greece are intensifying and fears of contagion are rising,” David Scutt, a currency trader at Arab Bank Australia in Sydney, told Reuters.

People know that, because of interlocking debt obligations in which one redemption leads to the demand for another, a chain reaction can occur, leading to a general collapse.

Last I heard, Greece was having to agree to pay 7% in interest above the Eurozone average to get anyone to buy their debt; and, yesterday, their credit rating was again cut by the credit rating agencies, which will make it even harder for them to finance the debt they have.
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Notice the way in which the situation in the U.S. is already worse than it is in Greece. The time has long passed in the U.S. in which the government could borrow money- like it did up to the fall of 2008- to pay interest on its debt when due, and to satisfy redemptions, on the debt it already had. The only way the U.S. Government can stay current on its debt obligations, now, is to do what it is doing- something no individual can do- print money, as necessary, to cover interest and redemptions of its debt. That is a thing known to lead to a currency collapse, when pursued too long, as people will begin to lose confidence in the value of the debt they hold, and start liquidating, as the Chinese appear from the data to have begun doing.

If the currency collapses, it will not be without warning, anymore than the collapse of 2008 was, though it may come suddenly. The credit rating agencies continue to suggest they may soon cut the U.S.' credit rating. Everyone who follows these events knows the situation in the U.S., at this time in its history.

[V]

A U.S. currency collapse, if it comes, will probably have a trigger event, something that causes a sudden loss of confidence. Such an event could include a failure, at auction, of an offer of U.S. Treasury Debt.

The psychological impact of that on the markets is hard to estimate, but it would be negative.

The U.S. continues to offer modest amounts of its debt at auction, with the ever present possibility of buyers simply not bidding sufficient sums to cover all of it; or, demanding higher interest as a condition of extending further credit.

Either could act as a trigger to a collapse.

[V]

I've assumed, in the past, that if anyone reads this they have familiarity with the terms; but, it's been called to my attention that there are readers who, while lacking in familiarity with the subject matter, are trying to follow what's being said, here. That being the case, I'm going to start offering short explanations of terms, at times, just as I did, above, with "derivatives".

I'm just like any other poster in the sense that I like to write about what interests me, and this is one of the things that does....

[V]

In the last two days, the credit ratings of the Greek, Portuguese and Spanish Governments have been cut by the rating agencies. This has caused the Euro to fall to a one year low against the dollar (the euro peaked, last year, at near $1.50 USD, and has been declining, since).

The practical effect of governments having a lower credit rating is that those who are willing lend to them typically will demand more interest to justify the extra risk involved. This can make the cost of borrowing and servicing the existing debt simply unaffordable any longer. This has implications for the U.S., too.

If the currency collapses, it will not be without warning, anymore than the collapse of 2008 was, though it may come suddenly. The credit rating agencies continue to suggest they may soon cut the U.S.' credit rating. Everyone who follows these events knows the situation in the U.S., at this time in its history.

The total indebtedness of the U.S. Government now exceeds the combined net worth of every man, woman and child in the U.S.

A credit agency doing what they have all threatened to do- cut the credit rating of the U.S. Government- could act as yet another potential "trigger" to a currency collapse.

Even at the current, very low rates of interest, the U.S. Government hasn't got enough money to service its existing debt without having to print the money required to do it: any downgrade of its credit rating would be a very serious development, indeed.
_____________________

The U.S. Government is broke, and it cannot find lenders willing to lend enough for it to borrow sufficient sums to cover the gap between what it takes in, and what it spends. To make up for this difference, the U.S. Treasury is, and has been, printing money, since fall 2008. An imagined resource has been created within the Treasury Dept where a notation is made, suggesting the Treasury has loaned money to the general budget. Anytime I say there is insufficient money for this or that specific program of the U.S. Government, it is an artifice: I could just as easily have said the U.S. Government didn't have sufficient money to pay for its military operations. It is a general insufficiency we're talking about, an inability to fully deal with its debts and other program needs, except by printing money.

[V]

The U.S. has been fatally weakened, and by that I don't mean it's going to cease to exist as a country, but will join the ranks of other countries in its power, influence, and wealth.

I think in the next ten years or so, Americans will be shaking their heads and asking themselves, "What happened," so profound will be the decline in the standard of living caused by the country's former unwillingness to come to grips with its problems.

The illusion of prosperity has been propped up by using every available means to hide mountains of debt, everywhere in the system.

Unlike that foretold in the Bible, what is to come will be a financial day of reckoning for the country.
____________________

Just today, yet another of cracks appeared: the U.S. Military budget is, according to testimony given by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, being eaten alive by the cost of caring for the returning servicemen- from two theaters of war- who will require care now and, in too many cases, for the rest of their lives.

[mixz1]

"Fatally weakened" is mighty pessimistic language. And while I will deny being an ostrich on this topic, I do have confidence that the US economy is adjustable and recoverable, albeit with a good deal of sacrifice and change of habits by the American people. But predicting the financial demise of the nation has the stink of manipulative language about it, designed to achieve certain "short" financial goals and more in line with the market avarice that the US is is struggling to recover from at this very moment.

Have you started moving your dollars into yuans yet? Somehow, I don't think so.

[V]

Well, Mixz1, I expect Steve will be pleased to hear that his forum now has the power to move international markets!

As for the term, "fatally weakened", those who read my post, above, saw exactly what I said and how I used the expression.

It could be said the U.K. economy is resilient, as well, but it no longer contends as a world power.

As for non dollar denominated investments and foreign currency investments, we've been in those since 2003, as a hedge against dollar weakness; and, if I thought the Chinese Government would cut the Yuan loose from its tight control, I'd buy it in a heartbeat, expecting an immediate pop of 20%.

Anyone who wants to see for themselves whether China is a currency manipulator, actively holding its value down, relative to the dollar, as many in Congress say it is, all they'd have to do is look at the track of the Yuan against the dollar in the last year.

[mixz1]

Originally Posted by V

Well, Mixz1, I expect Steve will be pleased to hear that his forum now has the power to move international markets!

As for the term, "fatally weakened", those who read my post, above, saw exactly what I said and how I used the expression.

It could be said the U.K. economy is resilient, as well, but it no longer contends as a world power.

As for non dollar denominated investments and foreign currency investments, we've been in those since 2003, as a hedge against dollar weakness; and, if I thought the Chinese Government would cut the Yuan loose from its tight control, I'd buy it in a heartbeat, expecting an immediate pop of 20%.

Anyone who wants to see for themselves whether China is a currency manipulator, actively holding its value down, relative to the dollar, as many in Congress say it is, all they'd have to do is look at the track of the Yuan against the dollar in the last year.

V- You have a unique talent for globalizing a localized comment. Maybe I should have clarified my opinion by stating your comments are indicative of the kind of manipulative language used by speculators to influence markets. I don't give you credit for that ability, I only give you credit for mimicking the language.

As to non-dollar and foreign currency investments, perhaps you are to be applauded for your self-preservative prudence, but another way to look at it is that you are betting against your own country, which is obviously something you are comfortable doing (with what appears to be enthusiasm, I might add).

[V]

Anyone who wants to see for themselves whether China is a currency manipulator, actively holding its value down, relative to the dollar, as many in Congress say it is, all they'd have to do is look at the track of the Yuan against the dollar in the last year.

What they do now, is peg the value of their currency to that of the USD, allowing changes to occur, if at all, only by stages. (The Yuan is currently about 6.8 Yuan/USD: a five year chart will reveal that, starting mid 2005 and continuing to mid 2008, the Bank of China allowed the value of the Yuan to increase against the dollar very, very slowly, until it reached its current level, where they've held it, ever since). As a result, when the dollar goes up in value against major currencies, such as the Euro, so does the Yuan; and, vise versa. That's why, under current conditions, it wouldn't make sense to buy Yuan, if you were seeking a hedge against dollar weakness.

What this policy does, for Chinese exporters, is stabilize the value of their contracts: they know that the value of the export contracts they make will not change merely because of currency fluctuations, so long as they think "dollars and yuan". There is a downside to following this practice: it means that, if the dollar weakens, those things they have to purchase abroad- raw materials mainly, but some manufactured goods, too- will go up in price for them. The same can be said in regard to the U.S., when the dollar weakens, it makes imports to the U.S. more expensive (unless they're coming from China), and can drive up inflation; but, it makes U.S. exports cheaper for others to buy, and can stimulate exports.
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Just as diversification is encouraged in making investments, generally, diversifying your investments across currencies is also a good idea, if you don't want to see the value of your portfolio declining, relative to the rest of the world.

[mixz1]

V- I'm not trying to pick a fight here, and as I said, your fiscal prudence is understandable, both emotionally and intellectually, so there's no need to quote yourself to further explain an easily understood explanation.

My point was, and still is, that at this point in history, it is the citizens of our "home" country who will exert influences which will have an effect on the recovery or failure of our country's economy. Dire predictions of failure and encouraging the movement of fiscal resources into foreign currencies is sort of non-productive in terms of the goals of recovery and in fact run counter to that goal.

While I admit to holding certain non-dollar assets, I have also recently invested in two startups, located in the US, started by US citizens, hiring Americans for work in America. I could lose here, or I could make a modest gain, but for the moment, what I've done is to enable some bright young people to try to build a business and at the same time put food on the table for a couple of hundred people.

They will in turn pay taxes, contribute to the Social Security System and spend disposable income in their neighborhoods, thereby helping those around them. They'll buy groceries, magazines, entertainment and housing, aiding in that common goal of recovery. Sure, some of that money will find itself headed overseas. So be it.

At the same time, I have not put assets into the hands of non-Americans, some of whom probably don't have my best interests at heart. So yes, in the short haul, you may think this was non-prudent investing. Depends on how you look at it. I see it as investing in America, and if I've shorted myself, I'll think of it as a sacrifice I was willing to make to help the country that's been so good to me.

[V]

Well done, Mixz1; and, for many of those who, like yourself, have chosen to invest in property, here, in Mexico, that itself represents a form of international diversification of investment.

Though it probably doesn't represent more than a minor motivation for buying here, it is one of the things we take into account, when considering it.
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In spite of everything, the bulk of our investment is physically in America, and in dollars; so, for us, foreign currency denominated investment represents only a partial hedge.

Like other Americans, even though we live abroad, we're obliged to pay U.S. taxes, on our world-wide income.

Aside from investment in America, and paying taxes, there are other ways we contribute, too. Two of my three children served in the U.S. military, and the third is a research engineer at the U.S. Naval Weapons Laboratory, China Lake.

We've got a serious stake in America: any comment I make about the U.S. being in danger of a further, financial meltdown, is just a statement of personal opinion, based on observation, and not a wish.
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[Jim in Cancun]

Unless you have unlimited time and tolerance, give up, Mxz1! V has a desperate need to have the last word.

Anyone who can paint the Cancun jail to be NOT from the TV series OZ but more like Oz as in the Wizard of, lives in a world unto himself where logic, mathematics, money markets and other people's opinions play 10th fiddle to his own rose-colored or jaundiced world views. Jaundiced in the case of the U.S. and rose-colored in the case of the Cancun jail or the waiting line in Immigration.

"Minds are like parachutes. They only work when they are open." Baron Dewar (yes, as in the scotch)

[V]

Unless you have unlimited time and tolerance, give up, Mxz1! V has a desperate need to have the last word.

Anyone who can paint the Cancun jail to be NOT from the TV series OZ but more like Oz as in the Wizard of, lives in a world unto himself where logic, mathematics, money markets and other people's opinions play 10th fiddle to his own rose-colored or jaundiced world views. Jaundiced in the case of the U.S. and rose-colored in the case of the Cancun jail or the waiting line in Immigration.

"Minds are like parachutes. They only work when they are open." Baron Dewar (yes, as in the scotch)

I have you to thank, Jim, for teaching me to ignore personal attacks on this forum, by making me a frequent target of yours.
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I probably had a different take on what Mixz1 was saying, thinking he was pointing out the risk of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy; and, that there were good reasons for those who cared about what happened in the U.S. to continue to put their money into it, even at some personal financial risk.

My post was conceived (by me) to be, in response to his, concurring.
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