That time again....

[V]

It's that time of year when thoughts turn to the weather, and what the season may bring. Today, for the first time this season, I noticed that the heavy weather, which had been streaming across the Atlantic well to the south, has now started to venture further north. Here's what they said,

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI... THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Still early in the season for us, but maybe we'll start getting some badly needed rain now.

[Gringation]

NOOOOOOOOOOO! I hate hurricane season because our dogs pee indoors when it rains. The next few months are going to be interesting at my house.

Thanks for the heads up, V.

[rawkus]

Oh, I HOPE we get some really heavy rain soon.


Ill even come by and swipe Gringation´s floor if needed, just give me rain

[V]

How 'bout that rain, huh, folks? It was nice to see, after such a long dry spell. Not much in itself, perhaps we'll see more, soon!

We watched from our balcony as the rain rolled in....

We can again see Isla in the distance, so if appears it's over, for now.

Stay tuned!

[V]

The storm continues its slow meander in our direction, with what is now a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation. It seems like an early start to the season, but with what's been happening in the U.S., it makes me wonder what this season will be like.

WS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized in association with a broad low pressure system located about 150 miles southwest of Jamaica. Although surface pressures are only slowly decreasing, some gradual development of this large disturbance is possible over the next couple of days as winds in the middle levels of the atmosphere briefly become somewhat favorable. There is a medium chance, 40 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area Monday afternoon, if necessary.

When I look at the cloud patterns I don't see the 40% chance, because the clouds don't yet describe the arcs I expect in a system that can progress to a hurricane, but they're the experts.

[V]

It's on the Pacific coast, not on the Caribbean, so poses no threat here but it does seem to be part of a larger weather cell that is affecting our weather: tropical storm Beatriz is expected to reach hurricane strength, later today.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING BEATRIZ AND WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

For more details see, www.stormpulse.com

[Isla Zina]

Gringation, it's still not to late to teach your dog to pee in the shower! Really.

[Gringation]

Originally Posted by Isla Zina

Gringation, it's still not to late to teach your dog to pee in the shower! Really.

Oh my gosh that's brilliant... I have a downstairs shower that nobody uses!

[Hudson]

I can't help with Gringation's doggie-peeing woes, but I can provide:

a dozen hurricane-tracking websites, ranked.

[Isla Zina]

Gringation: You need some of her urine. Take a couple paper towels when you walk her and rub them over the stop she went. Then throw them in the shower. Repeat till you have 4 or so in there near the drain. Then when she asks or acts like she needs to go out, take her down there and say pee pee. I always say good pee pee when my dog does it outside, so this gave us a basis to communicate with. Now, when it's raining, she ask me to open the door to the bathroom and looks over her shoulder while she does it. I throw some chlorine on it and run the shower! Done. If a puddle sits without you seeing it, nutralize with white vinegar! Done.

[V]

Regardless of development, this disturbance could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the yucatan peninsula.

Uh, did they say "could"?

Saint Louis, MO Weather / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

[V]

2 PM EST report:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Little, if any, development is expected as the wave continues to move across the Yucatan peninsula and Central America today and tonight. However, this system is forecast to emerge over the bay of Campeche on Monday where upper-level winds are expected to become somewhat more conducive for development. There is a low chance, 20 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tell me about it! I've been running around, alternately opening and closing windows to let in some air, or keep the rain out, for the last 24 hours.

5 PM Update: Call me alarmist if you want, but in animations there now appears to be some "rotation" to the storm, which was said to have a center about 270 miles from here. By 9 PM tonight a hell of a thunderstorm is supposed to be lashing the coast, especially to the south of us. Poor Chetumal.
___________________

[V]

Well, we got our rain, and some wind, but that was then, and this is now. Since then, we've had some pretty amazingly good weather, almost all the time.

It probably won't affect us, but there is 93L, headed in our general direction at the moment but will probably pass well to the south, and bring no more than rain.

Saint Louis, MO Weather / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

[kathy_caribe]

I predict, based on nesting this year, that we will have no hurricanes here (Cancun to Tulum).

[Gringation]

Kathy: How did you come to that conclusion? What behavioral differences did the sea turtles show?

[Du Cooke]

Hurricanes is one thing everyone warns me of, when I'm off to cancun, I've heard a few stories and seen the carnage (via youtube), what steps do you guys do when a hurricane starts coming inland?

[Cancun Fun]

First thing you do is buy as much alcohol and food as you can get....jajaja We usually dont do too much as far as groceries go since you could buy groceries the next day after Wilma. Not sure why everyone goes nuts in the tuna section!

[kathy_caribe]

Originally Posted by Gringation

Kathy: How did you come to that conclusion? What behavioral differences did the sea turtles show?

It is only anecdotal, but the year of the girls (2005) we had little to no nesting on our beach. Dean we had more but not as much as 2008 forward. Also seeing the east side of Cozumel (wild) says they are nesting like, well, crazed tortugas there. At one point there was either a study or simple anecdotal research done in the Tampa, FL area that turtles don't normally nest within 300km (?) of a direct hit. Since I've been watching the nests (the kids are actually counting them daily this year) I've noted we haven't been hit in high nesting years.

[Gringation]

Thanks Kathy! fascinating

[matkirk]

For any of you homeowners that want insurance, I looked around and Banamex were loads cheaper than anyone else. For my house valued at a bit over a million I paid 2500 for the year. Now it's not the best of the best insurance, but it is 1000 times better than nothing

[T.J.]

Well, that does it for me. If Kathy can predict no hurricanes due to "nesting" then I am not going to worry, check any of the various weather sites, computer models, etc.

The smart money is on Kathty ? ? ? ?