The Brexit Divide???

Discussion in 'Free For All' started by marshe, Jun 2, 2016.

  1. marshe

    marshe The Original Hottie and Hellraiser Registered Member

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    I'm getting very curious about what will happen 3 weeks from today in the U.K.

    Obviously as a Canuck I have no vote and very little news coverage of the debate. The media coverage I have read implies the vote will be close, howeever the sources may be biased
    But as a financial junkie I am fascinated by the possible ramifications.

    Is it time for a reality check before taking such rash action?
    Or Is this the beginning of the end for the EU as a Trading Bloc, (if the Leave side wins) ?

    And if that happens, will Britain flourish or wrestle with Recession?
    How low will the British pound sink?

    Will more countries follow and opt out?
    Will Euro currency eventually fade away?

    To paraphrase the great (The Clash's) Mick Jones and Joe Strummer

    "Darling U.K. you got to let us know.
    Will you stay or should you blow?"
     
  2. twinimini

    twinimini I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    I will be curious to see what Steve's take is on the Brexit vote. Steve tends to be a bit more to the left which may or may not have an effect on his take on the situation. There is much speculation that a leave vote will result in Scotland going on its own way. It shall be interesting to see how that vote goes. For us in the States, not quite as interesting as the next five months of presidential campaigning, but interesting nonetheless.
     
  3. marshe

    marshe The Original Hottie and Hellraiser Registered Member

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    Funny that you mention Scotand.....
    In about 36 hrs we will be touching down in Glasgow for a 10 day coach tour and a lot of Scotch tastings
    And I anticipate I will get a few locals' views, as we move about the country.
     
  4. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    Going to be very close but in recent days Leave is gaining ground, I hope that continues. Polls are 50/50 or 52/48 in favour of Remain, but bookmakers are very firmly expecting a Remain vote.

    This is a far bigger issue than whether the pound drops or whether the economy has a short term downturn.

    It's about sovereignty, the ability to make our own laws and those who make them being accountable to the electorate. I don't want some faceless, unelected, unaccountable, foreign bureaucrats deciding the policy of my home country.

    It's about controlling our border and deciding who can come and who can't. 500 Million Europeans have the right to live and work in the UK. With youth unemployment at around 40-50% in Greece, Italy, Spain and minimum wages in some countries meaning low skilled workers can earn more in a day in the UK than they can make in a week at home - guess where everyone wants to go? The oversupply depresses wages for the low paid and encourages eroding of workers rights. Not to mention the pressure on housing, schools, the health service, roads, Police etc

    Let's not forget the 2 Million unvetted economic migrants and refugees (no doubt with terrorists embedded) welcomed in to other EU countries last year, who in a couple of years time will have an EU passport and can move to the UK without hindrance.

    The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the World. An island built on coal, gas and oil and surrounded by fish, the principal financial capital of Europe and a successful trading nation for centuries. The UK has 6 of the top 25 universities in the World, the rest of the EU has none in the top 25. We can make it alone without the EU - the slowest growing trading bloc of all trading blocs.

    Most of the countries in the World are not in the EU, and most of those countries are doing far better than most of the countries in the EU. If the UK suffers a little in the short term so be it, the gains will be worth it in the long run.

    This is the most important vote for generations. I have jumped through a hundred hoops to make sure I get a vote myself. I am voting OUT. For me, this vote will determine whether I want to ever live there again, whether I will encourage my kids to study and work there or whether I consider my country lost.

    If we leave the EU on June 23, it will be considered our Independence Day. It really is that important.
     
  5. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    Scotland is much more in favour of Remain than England is.

    Kind of ironic that they almost left the UK in their referendum a year or two ago, but if the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU they will seek a second referendum to leave the UK.

    I think they like subsidies.
     
  6. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    There you have it :)

    I consider myself neither left nor right as I hold views on both sides of the spectrum depending on what the specific issue is. I do find as I get older, maybe wiser, and better off I lean more and more to the right.

    But, if I were a US citizen, I still couldn't vote for Trump!
     
  7. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    I could post similar all day, but probably shouldnt.

     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
  8. twinimini

    twinimini I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Thanks Steve for your input. I've heard some of the pros and cons, but I think Steve summed up the cons really well. From what I have seen, and granted it is very limited, the EU governing apparatus seems overblown and overly officious. I have never been able to imagine how countries that had been enemies for centuries which have very different cultures could ever agree on much of anything. When they do agree it seems like the proverbial attempts to please everyone which pleases no one.
     
  9. krimmer2

    krimmer2 Regular Registered Member

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    Completely agree with u Steve on all points betting is unfortunately odds on to remain and 5/2 for exit but that's shorter odds than earlier and as Steve said the leave side is gaining ground.
     
  10. marshe

    marshe The Original Hottie and Hellraiser Registered Member

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    WOW! Britain on the Brink

    Just read that the BBC just reported Leave won the referendum.

    Is this the begining of the dismantling of the EU?
     
  11. twinimini

    twinimini I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Now we'll just have to see what happens next. The vote was somewhat unexpected, but was going to be very close to call.

    I can see the shock waves going very far but the real question is how deep will they go. Will this block Turkey from entering the EU which might swing that country closer to the radicals? Will the US market tumble because of the vote? Will it change the economy of Britain, Canada, and the US?

    Tons of questions and very few answers other than pure speculation.
     
  12. marshe

    marshe The Original Hottie and Hellraiser Registered Member

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    Gonna be a Black Friday in June on the markets today.

    Canuck Buck is already getting hammered
     
  13. twinimini

    twinimini I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    Maybe with a devalued pound it might be a good time to plan that London vacation. Just a thought.

    Most of the negative reaction seems to be coming from the entertainment crowd which doesn't seem to have much of a grasp of reality so I'm not sure if things are nearly as bad as they want you to believe. It will all sort out in due time so we'll just wait and see.

    As with all major news events there is an immediate reaction which is indicative only of panic. As things become more clearly defined we'll know what the pluses and the minuses will be, or at least have a better understanding.
     
  14. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    Obviously I am very happy with the outcome. It was against the opinion polls and the bookmakers so very unexpected.

    The young vote didn't mobilise, they didn't vote in sufficient numbers thinking it was a done deal and didn't need to bother. The over 45's voted in mass, and the stats show the older the voter the more inclined to vote Leave.

    London voted Remain by a long way but were out voted by the rest of the country and Wales.

    Lots of crying about the vote from the Remainers, even a petition started with 2.5 Mill signatures calling for a second referendum because the margin of victory wasn't large enough.

    Imho a great day for the UK, the stock market dropped but recovered to finish at a one week high. I expect more recovery next week. The pound plummeted, but not necessarily a disaster - exports are cheaper to buy, holidays to the UK are cheaper, and of course I get paid in USD and my savings accounts are in the UK.

    All in all, it will take time but probably not as long as many have suggested. I see this as one step back for two steps forward.

    Now watch the EU crumble as more and more countries demand their own referendum.
     
  15. marshe

    marshe The Original Hottie and Hellraiser Registered Member

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    Always love to read your perspective Mate!
    And especially on things UK centric.

    Also Love your appetite for a pregnant pause, to allow you to gather your sober second thoughts, during the eye of the storm, before engaging your outer voice.* (most of us jump prematurely during the hysteria)
    And you generally nail it!

    *it has been over 24 hrs since the fury erupted.

    I beleieve tme will prove you right on most of your points.

    This is the dawn of the end of the EU, as I see it.

    After travelling around Scotland for 10 days earlier this month, ( which incidentally was a stunning tour, from Glasglow to Aberdeen to St Andrews to the crown jewel called Edinburgh) and having umpteen random conversations with various strangers and acquaintances, combined with having been in 18 EU countries in over the last 16 years, along with meeting many Europeans at TTR , I strongly believe the EU experiment has been a giant failure!!!
    (Prosperity and peace has not been a by-product as promised.)

    I feel 2 steps backwards currently for the UK, will lead to a prolonged malaise, but however will eventually
    Harken to an indestructible nation in the forseeable future.
    And during this period, I agree, the remaining EU States will wither.

    I think ol Winston is looking down, wishing he was alive today, to lead Her Britannia.
    Which is to say, a vastly astute, vigorous, untenable leader is neeeded at this point in time, in Britain's history to assure a clear vision to sturdy independance and prosperity.

    I am glad, at the result of the referendum and await the unfolding EU future with ardor
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2016
  16. newtwo

    newtwo Enthusiast Registered Member

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    As you know now we have left the EU and taken our country back. There will be dark times ahead ! But we will come out stronger for it. The NHS was being killed by people coming in and taking the piss out of it. In october the Eu is letting in 5 new countrys
     
  17. Bradnlisa

    Bradnlisa Enthusiast Registered Member

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    Watched here with great interest Steve, Im sure with the passing of a little time you will be spot on, more to ultimately gain by leaving. great result
     
  18. twinimini

    twinimini I can choose my own title Registered Member

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    With the age divide in the UK on the Brexit vote and the age divide here in the US with the rise of Bernie Sanders, I wonder if perhaps we may be heading toward something similar to the 60's Vietnam divide that split the US and spilled over somewhat into other countries. Adding to that divide we have a Donald Trump appealing to an older demographic. Just wondering if we may be headed toward a new divided western world.
     
  19. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    Re Young Voters:

    If the US is anything like the UK they'll be noisy and very active on social media but when it comes down to it they have better things to do on election day. Then they will blame the older generation for ruining their future, and want a re-run.

    75% of UK 18-24 yr olds voted Remain, but only 36% actually bothered to vote. You could read that as 73% didn't vote Remain. Turnout overall was 72%.

    This was after the Govt extended the registration deadline by 2 days specifically to lure in younger voters. The registration website crashed due to overload a few hours before the registration deadline, so emergency legislation was set in place the next day to extend the deadline by two days and a huge Facebook campaign aimed at encouraging younger voters to register was launched. (Just one of the 'dirty tricks' designed to help Remain win)

    If the young had voted in numbers similar to the national average the result would have been very different. Maybe the US will play out the same.
     
  20. marshe

    marshe The Original Hottie and Hellraiser Registered Member

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    who had the better week?
    Roy Hodgson or David Cameron?

    And which one will have the kinder legacy?