UPDATED-- Hurricane Dean (Cat 5)

Discussion in 'Cancun Info' started by Steve, Aug 13, 2007.

  1. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    well... the NHC still hasnt changed its track as there is soooo much uncertainty with it right now.... They are just being very cautious and saying for everyone to generally watch out.



    865
    WTNT44 KNHC 172043
    TCDAT4
    HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
    500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

    DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
    INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
    REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
    AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
    WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
    THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
    POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
    REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
    TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
    WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
    SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

    DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
    STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
    SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
    OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
    TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
    PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
    WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
    WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
    OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
    OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
    HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
    ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

    THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
    THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
    SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    DEAN.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT
    12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT
    24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT
    36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT
    48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT
    72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT
    96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA
     
  2. CRAZYMIKE

    CRAZYMIKE Guest

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    Good to see some of you who live there are still having fun and not sh--ing your self yet..LOL

    I hope it does not hit you guys head on, But it seems 100% sure you will see some of it.

    Where do all you relocate to when a storm hits??
     
  3. Michael F.

    Michael F. Moderator/1st CC Member Registered Member

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    I know last time some peeps went all the way to Merida.
     
  4. CRAZYMIKE

    CRAZYMIKE Guest

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    how far out is that Mike
     
  5. jenleib

    jenleib Addict Registered Member

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    It is like 4 hours driving.... and they couldn't come back, the roads were flooded, and there were looters. Better some hotel, you need to have very high spirits to stay in a public shelter :wink:
     
  6. CancunCanuck

    CancunCanuck Guest

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    We stayed here, I'd rather be comfy at home than in a shelter! The house we are in withstood Gilberto and Wilma without a broken window, we'll be fine.

    Hubby's job may force us to leave though, they have mentioned they may want him to go to Merida so he can continue working if things get bad here.
     
  7. BrianL

    BrianL Guest

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    Wow.. looking at the most recent satellite pictures, this thing has reeally strengthened in the last couple of hours. Looks VERY impressive.


    [​IMG]




    Its probably a category 4 now.. id say around 140-150 mph winds.
     
  8. Steve

    Steve Administrator Owner

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    Please also follow the progress of Hurricane Dean on our new:

    Hurricane Cancun Blog.

    The blog is a joint effort between myself, Rivergirl and CancunCanuck from the board and will be updated several times a day as the hurricane Dean drama unfolds.

    The blog will contain a mixture of News and real life experience of those who live in Cancun and is updated multiple times a day.

    The blog has been live for less than 24 hrs but we've already had more than 3,000 visitors and 6,000 page views.

    Please spread the word and check out:
    http://www.hurricanecancun.com/
     
  9. TraceyUk

    TraceyUk Guru Registered Member

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    Its now a category 4 !!!
    Tracey
     
  10. svtcobra242

    svtcobra242 Regular Registered Member

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    Oh man I am so stuck. I need advise please.
    I arrive on Wednesday the 22nd. The day after it might hit. (IF IT DOES). I really want to go to CUN. should I chicken out and change now? or should I hold it off to the end?